Total cost of ownership · 36-month horizon

What the phone actually costs

Every scenario below is settled in full at the end of the horizon: unpaid device balance due, unearned credits gone, the phone in your hand valued at what you could sell it for. Lower is better.

Assumptions

Horizon
36 months
Discount rate
4.5% / year
Sales tax
8.80%
Perks valued at
10% of list
Phone resale value
counted
Trade-in opportunity cost
counted

Ranking

ScenarioNet NPVNominal Per monthPer line/mo vs baseline
01 Keep phones, switch to MVNO Nobody buys a phone (the baseline) $3,157 $3,220 $87.71 $43.85 baseline
02 K&S now, Pixel at month 3 LI keeps the S25U for the payoff reimbursement, then trades it for the Pixel at month 3 $6,082 $6,339 $168.94 $84.47 +$2,924
03 AT&T Extra x2 — Pixel 256, Fold U 256 LI: Pixel 256, LU: Fold U 256 $6,492 $6,704 $180.33 $90.16 +$3,334
04 AT&T Extra + AT&T Premium — Pixel 256, Fold U 256 LI: Pixel 256, LU: Fold U 256 $7,150 $7,402 $198.61 $99.30 +$3,992
05 AT&T Premium x2 — Pixel 256, Fold U 256 LI: Pixel 256, LU: Fold U 256 $7,251 $7,510 $201.42 $100.71 +$4,094
06 T-Mo More x2 — Pixel 256, Fold U 256 LI: Pixel 256, LU: Fold U 256 $7,536 $7,817 $209.34 $104.67 +$4,379
07 AT&T Extra + T-Mo Beyond — Pixel 256, Fold U 256 LI: Pixel 256, LU: Fold U 256 $7,538 $7,816 $209.40 $104.70 +$4,381
08 AT&T Extra + T-Mo More — Pixel 256, Fold U 256 LI: Pixel 256, LU: Fold U 256 $7,704 $7,995 $214.01 $107.00 +$4,547

Net cost by the month you leave

Promotional credits are earned monthly. Leaving early means paying off the device and losing whatever credits have not yet landed, so the curve tells you when a deal stops being a trap.

$0 $1,633 $3,267 $4,900 $6,533 $8,166 6 12 18 24 30 36 months before you leave Keep phones, switch to MVNO $3,157 at 36 mo K&S now, Pixel at month 3 $6,082 at 36 mo AT&T Extra x2 — Pixel 256, Fold U… $6,492 at 36 mo AT&T Extra + AT&T Premium — Pixel… $7,150 at 36 mo AT&T Premium x2 — Pixel 256, Fold… $7,251 at 36 mo T-Mo More x2 — Pixel 256, Fold U … $7,536 at 36 mo AT&T Extra + T-Mo Beyond — Pixel … $7,538 at 36 mo AT&T Extra + T-Mo More — Pixel 25… $7,704 at 36 mo

Where the money goes

Present-value dollars. Negative figures are money or value coming back to you.

Component keep_mvno ks_then_trade combo:liv=extr_pixel256+LU=extr_foldu256 combo:liv=extr_pixel256+LU=prem_foldu256 combo:liv=prem_pixel256+LU=prem_foldu256 combo:liv=more_pixel256+LU=more_foldu256 combo:liv=extr_pixel256+LU=beyond_foldu256 combo:liv=extr_pixel256+LU=more_foldu256
Service charges $1,520 $5,406 $3,852 $5,304 $5,406 $4,933 $5,811 $5,237
One-time fees $0 $70 $70 $70 $70 $70 $70 $70
Device paid upfront $0 $298 $299 $299 $299 $299 $299 $299
Device installments $0 $3,083 $3,191 $3,191 $3,191 $3,191 $3,191 $3,191
Early payoff balance $0 $95 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Value of phone traded in $1,200 $1,200 $1,200 $1,200 $1,200 $1,200 $1,200 $1,200
Payoff on traded-in phone $700 $700 $700 $700 $700 $700 $700 $700
Promo bill credits $0 -$2,719 -$2,075 -$2,870 -$2,870 -$1,943 -$2,870 -$2,163
Switcher reimbursement $0 -$658 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Perk value claimed $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 -$169 -$118 -$84
Resale value of phone in hand -$263 -$1,393 -$745 -$745 -$745 -$745 -$745 -$745
Total $3,157 $6,082 $6,492 $7,150 $7,251 $7,536 $7,538 $7,704

Lock-in exposure

Darker cells cost more at that exit point. The last column is what you would hand back if you walked at month 12: remaining device balance plus forfeited credits.

Scenario 12 mo 18 mo 24 mo 30 mo 36 mo Forfeit at 12 mo
Keep phones, switch to MVNO $1,855 $2,180 $2,496 $2,831 $3,157 $0
K&S now, Pixel at month 3 $3,619 $4,300 $4,853 $5,464 $6,082 $4,794
AT&T Extra x2 — Pixel 256, Fold U 256 $4,626 $5,057 $5,487 $5,992 $6,492 $3,964
AT&T Extra + AT&T Premium — Pixel 256, Fold U 256 $4,887 $5,421 $5,951 $6,554 $7,150 $4,614
AT&T Premium x2 — Pixel 256, Fold U 256 $4,922 $5,473 $6,020 $6,639 $7,251 $4,614
T-Mo More x2 — Pixel 256, Fold U 256 $4,984 $5,593 $6,196 $6,871 $7,536 $3,856
AT&T Extra + T-Mo Beyond — Pixel 256, Fold U 256 $5,022 $5,622 $6,216 $6,881 $7,538 $4,614
AT&T Extra + T-Mo More — Pixel 256, Fold U 256 $5,051 $5,686 $6,315 $7,014 $7,704 $4,036

Cheapest over 36 months

Keep phones, switch to MVNO

$3,157